Investment Process
Idea Generation
Ideas come from screening built to find structure, not popularity. These screens look for different signals. Few or no analysts covering the name. A business the market has a wrong conception of their true business. Exceptional demand and strong financials. Peer analysis unnoticed due to their size.
Analysis
Every idea that survives the screen gets read from the filings up. The financial statements come first. What the numbers say, how the accounting choices shape the reported results, and where the disclosures and the story management tells do not line up with the consensus. From there the work builds out to how free cash is generated, how the industry is structured, and where the company sits inside it. The goal of this stage is one clear question answered. What does this analysis conclude that the market has not.
Sourcing
Every figure carries its origin. Reported means it came from a filing or government data. Consensus means it came from published estimates. Extrapolated means it was calculated here, with the calculation shown. Nothing rests on a number whose source the reader cannot see. This is what separates a researched view from an assumed one.
The Thesis
A finished note states the variant view plainly, then tests it. Three scenarios cover the good case, the expected case, and the bad case, so the range of outcomes is visible rather than assumed. Specific dates are flagged with what each one would confirm or break. The thesis is written to be acted on and tracked, not admired.
Risk and the Kill Switch
Every thesis states up front what would prove it wrong. Not a vague risk factor, but a specific condition that can be watched and checked. If that condition triggers, the thesis is closed, regardless of the price. A view that cannot be proven wrong is a story, not a position. This is the last stage of the process and the one that keeps the rest honest.
All content is published for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Views expressed are those of the author personally and do not represent any employer or affiliated organization.
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